The 1981-level mortgage shock has the housing market in a correction—these 7 leading research firms predict what else for prices.

The Federal Reserve finally stopped the inflation that started in the 1970s, but only after the central bank’s aggressive hikes were realized. mortgage rates up 18% in 1981 and the housing market has fallen into a deep recession. At this time, the builders sent the wooden houses to the Fed as a way of protesting as some tenants think they can never find a home.

Hurry up today, and the ongoing conflict of the Fed re-stimulated a mortgage rate shock. This increase in mortgage rates, which rose from 3.22% to 6.48% in the past 12 months, has pushed the US housing market inward. a full house renovation.

On the one hand, 6% mortgage rates are not uncommon. On the other hand, the 3.22 percentage point jump in mortgage rates last year provided a potential shock similar to what happened in 1981 when mortgage rates rose 4.9 percentage points to 18%. .

See, it’s less about mortgage numbers and more about total monthly mortgage payments as a percentage of new borrowers’ income. And when everything is accounted for (ie home prices, income, and mortgage rates) the 2022 affordability pressure it is almost identical to the 1981 affordability squeeze.

“Affordability is disappearing, and with it the demand for housing,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, let me know Deliver.

Make no mistake: Back in June 2022, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the housing market should undergo a “reset” to stabilize housing prices and put the housing market and the general economy in good balance. That’s why the Fed, which stopped buying mortgage-backed securities and raised the Federal Funds rate, put more pressure on mortgage rates in 2022. “press”-something we are seeing right now- investors and first home buyers will stop bidding (thus slowing home prices) and will be pulled back by the construction teams (such as providing breathing room supply chains).

“For the long term we need supply and demand to be more closely aligned so that housing prices rise to a reasonable and reasonable level and so that people can afford it again. houses. Maybe we in the housing market have to go through (house) corrections to get back to that place,” Powell told reporters in September. “This difficult (housing) correction should return the housing market to a better balance.”

See this linked chart on Fortune.com

As long as housing affordability is strengthened like this, Zandi believes that housing sales will remain high and housing prices will continue to fall. Going forward, Zandi said there are three levers that could weaken housing affordability: Rising incomes, falling home prices, and falling mortgage rates.

Of those three levers, brokers and builders are watching closely to see if mortgage rates will fall. First, this lever can move up and down very easily. Second, financial markets—increasingly convinced that the Fed is on a path to deflate inflation—have in recent weeks put pressure on mortgage rates. . Of the average 30-year tenure mortgage reading on Thursday (6.48%) is below the November cycle high (7.08%). If financial conditions continue to deteriorate, mortgage rates will continue to fall.

To get a better rate of sales and sales six see 2023, Deliver Find below mortgage rates from seven research companies (Deliver A similar update was made last week for 2023 housing price data). Remember that during inflation it is very difficult to predict future changes in mortgage rates.

Mortgage Bankers Association: The DC-based trading group projects the 30-year fixed mortgage will average 5.2% in 2023. Beyond this year, the average mortgage rate is expected to rise to 4.4% in 2024 and 2025.

Fannie Mae: Economists at Fannie Mae, which was chartered by the US Congress in 1938 to provide affordable mortgages, projects the 30-year fixed mortgage will average 6.3% in 2023 and 5.6% by 2024.

Freddie Mac: Economist at Freddie Mac, which like Fannie Mae was also credited with providing affordable mortgagesprediction of the 30-year fixed rate will be average 6.4% in 2023.

Goldman Sachs: The investment bank expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.2% in 2023.Would be Goldman Sachs’ home price outlook).

Moody’s Analytics: The financial department of Moody’s projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage will average 6.5% in the 2023 spring housing market. (You can find Moody’s Analytics by region and housing market here)

Morgan Stanley: The Bureau of MBS guidance at Morgan Stanley believes that the mortgage will fall to 6% by the end of 2023. (Would be the investment bank’s housing perspective).

Realtor.com: Investors believe in leasing homes with 30-year fixed mortgages about 7.4% in 2023.

Want to keep updated on home improvement? Follow me Twitter c @NewsLambert.

This story originally appeared on Fortune.com

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