Carson Group Chief Marketing Officer Ryan Detrick joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the dynamics in the housing market and economy, the outlook for stocks and bonds , as well as his NFL predictions for Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow.
SEAN SMITH: We want to bring in Ryan Detrick. He is the Carson Group’s leading economist. Ryan, it’s great to see you here. So the big banks started their earnings season last Friday. Here we are a week later. What do you make of the results we have so far and what do they portend for the future?
RYAN DETRICK: Yeah, thanks for coming back, guys. I mean, yes, the bank went down, remember, that was Friday, last Friday, and then it came back. Overall, the income was very poor. But let’s be honest, most of the big boys start next week, so we can get some real big names. But I want to dive somewhere. You are talking about house information. Yes, the details of the buildings are just bad maybe that’s the best way to put it.
Look at housing stock. Home equity is on the rise these days. Home sharing is leading the way, right? The market is a great brand. We’re not saying that if you’re selling your home, buying a home might be bad. But the stock market is leading the way, and that’s the strength. And that’s power from agency and housing. Things we didn’t see last year, right? Let’s be very clear. We didn’t see that last year. Now we see it. This is definitely something that investors need to pay attention to.
DAVE BRIGGS: That’s something you bet will continue, but Ryan?
RYAN DETRICK: Yes, we do. We just released, in fact, our 2023 outlook this week. And one of our calls that you can say is more controversial, I guess, we don’t see a decline this year. And I know a lot of the economy is doing it, but we’re looking at a low point in the housing market. We’ve seen fruit rolling around. We’ve seen a huge increase in people getting mortgages in the last week.
The consumer, of course, is not perfect, but the consumer, in our opinion, is still strong. They still have more than a trillion dollars in savings. And we think we can avoid a failure. And you look at what the stock markets are doing here with the energy from all these different — look at the technology, right? Technology was bad last year. Now we see the leadership from there. It’s a public gathering. To us, again, this is a different sign than what we saw in the last 12 months. And that’s a good thing.
SEAN SMITH: Ryan, we’re coming off the worst year we’ve seen for the market since 2008. I know you’ve made some historical comments in terms of performance, how sales come back from bad years. What does that look like in terms of performance that we might expect here?
RYAN DETRICK: Yeah, the good news is, it’s rare, guys, two years down the line. ’73, ’74, and the third year of the tech bubble, those were also failures. Again, we see no downside. If we have one, it’s probably small and the customer is in good shape to go, but it’s not our principle. But the bottom line is, of course, sales are often restocked. But actually– the worst damage, man, back to World War II, the next year was an all-time high, up, like, 27% in the average. If you’re only down for a year, you’ll be up about 15% on average the next year, up 80% of the time.
These are all percentages of numbers. Yes, but the point is, again, it’s not just bad for sales, right? It was historically bad for liability. The 60/40 portfolio, I had a very difficult year. Now we’re seeing good returns in bonds and stocks. And we think it will be better to go back to normal. We think that stocks, guys, can get between 12% and 15% this year, and the bonds give you about 4% to 5%, kind of right about where it is. But we think it’s going to be a better year than people let on.
DAVE BRIGGS: Dig your point, man. Digital blackout, will it last? And will they spread beyond the group?
RYAN DETRICK: Yes, we think they are very good– good questions. We think they can continue. When you look at the entire digital ecosystem, it’s a small part of the overall economy. And other areas of the economy are still growing. There it is unique. We all know the technology that was so big in 2020, ’21, that they’re hiring now. They’re cutting some of the fat, I guess you could say.
It’s not nice to see, right, but at the same time, we don’t think it will spread to other parts of the economy. I mean, look what some of the– who is this? It says United Airlines, right? I mean, people are still flying. People are still going out. They are still eating at fancy restaurants. It’s just that different parts are slow. And of course, technology. But that is the state of the economy. We think it will happen this year.
SEAN SMITH: Ryan, you mentioned the high level we’re seeing in technology. When you look at the market changes today, what do you think will lead us to the top in terms of growth and the value of the debate?
RYAN DETRICK: Yes. Yes, we remain in the fight. I know growing up was good all of a sudden, man. The rate of growth was more than 21% in the previous year. The last time something like this was done was in 2000. This is important. For the next six years, prices continued to fluctuate. Just because you had a bad year doesn’t mean it has to end. And we like, as I talked about, the important parts of the tour. We love small hats. We love the workplace, your money.
Materials are starting to improve in some of those base metals. So if you want to avoid the economy, we think that’s where you want to be. We are not biased. Market pressure is what I should say, technology in general. But we like the value and pricing around the small caps here for 2023.
DAVE BRIGGS: I want to see what your intention really is. Cincinnati Bengals, 5 and 1/2 points under regulation. Can they win this week? Can they win?
RYAN DETRICK: Yeah, I don’t want to do it against Joe Burrow. I mean, it’s awesome, Bill and the story, and DeMar is doing great. But I’m a Bengals fan. I have to say, who should. And going up against Joe Burrow is something that hasn’t been done very well in history. So I like our chances this Sunday, I guess, at 3 o’clock Eastern. We are very happy.
DAVE BRIGGS: It’s a tough matchup, man, in Buffalo. The fan, Josh Allen. We’re going to talk outside about a little bet, shall we? Ryan Detrick, have a great weekend. Good to see you, man.