WASHINGTON, DC – Despite ending the year on a stronger-than-expected note, the economy is still expected to fall into a recession starting in the first half of 2023, according to the January 2023 information from Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic Research and Planning Division (ESR).. The ESR component sees the current rate as non-recourse income and indicates that the customer’s termination of will be a major factor in economic decline. The ESR Group predicts the Q4 / Q4 GDP growth for 2023 is negative 0.6 percent, one tenth lower than its previous forecast. Noting the cooling of inflation in the past three reports of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the ESR Group believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to be close to its final rate but notes that Risks remain for longer-term monetary policy if the recession is delayed. Avoid it altogether, or otherwise, if the cost estimates can’t be more satisfactory.
In addition, the ESR Group expects a 6.7 percent increase in housing prices over the next two years as housing capacity continues to expand. A repeat of the Great Financial Crisis is not expected, however, because fewer borrowers are facing interest rate pressures, loan and modification programs are more aggressive, and the combination of rental and public housing. the financial system is very little used compared to 2006. -2008 period. Instead, housing affordability is seen to gradually improve over the long term due to a combination of housing prices, lower mortgage rates, and stronger-than-normal income growth. The ongoing challenges of affordability and the “lock-in effect” – where many homeowners currently have the financial disadvantage to rent their homes due to the high mortgage environment – ESR Group hopes that existing real estate sales will continue, creating an avenue for new real estate sales to compared to the sales of existing homes in the coming years.
“There are economic signs that point to a recession but also signs that a ‘soft landing’ may be coming,” said Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Fannie Mae. “In our view, the balance still shows a low deficit, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to focus on strengthening the labor market. Allowance for cleaning in the second half of the year, which can be interpreted as a forecast of the coming recession or slowdown of the economy that will lead to the decrease in financial stability. the scenario for picking up jobs at home through 2024, as seen in our latest article, but if the market gets it wrong – and it does The Federal Reserve has said it will keep the federal funds rate in place to ensure there is no further rate hike – and delay the fourth recession. with the housing renaissance. housing market.”
Visit the Economic Research & Planning location c fanniemae.com Read the full January 2023 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Development Information, Economic Outlook, Exhibition of Buildingsand Multifamily Market Information. To receive email updates and other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
The opinions, analyses, estimates, statements, and other opinions of Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group contained herein should not be construed to reflect the Fannie Mae’s business expectations or expected results are based on many assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, statements, and other opinions on information it believes to be reliable, it does not guarantee that the information presented in these materials is accurate, current or appropriate for its users. a special purpose. Changes in the assumptions or information on which these assumptions are based could produce different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other opinions published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and are does not represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About ESR Group
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, analyzes current data, analyzes historical data and trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and lender groups to provide information and analysis on the economy, housing , and mortgage markets. The ESR Group recently received 2022 popularity Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy is based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over a 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.